Ephraim Sneh

The Iraqi-American Confrontation: An Israeli Perspective

By Ephraim Sneh

at the Utah Museum of Fine Arts
University of Utah

February 19, 2003

Before speaking about the Israeli perspective about the U.S./Iraqi confrontation or war, I have to start with a description of the past record of Israeli/Iraqi relations, and it's not exactly a love story. Iraq actively participated in all the aggressions against Israel. Since the birth of Israel in 1948, during our Independence War in 1948, the Iraqi Army invaded Israel and actually was the main Arab Army fighting with us in the central area of Israel. In the war of 1967, the Iraqi Air Force tried, but failed, to carry out air raids on the major city of Israel, namely Tel Aviv. They failed. In 1969 and 1970 during the War of Attrition, Iraqi artillery batteries almost every day for a period of more than a year, shelled Israeli civilian towns and villages, and in 1990-91, in the first Gulf War, Saddam Hussein launched 39 ballistic missiles to the heart of Israel, mainly the Tel Aviv area. The missiles were targeting the most densely populated part of our country. Fortunately, there was a great deal of damage, but very few causalities. But the serious Iraqi attempt to inflict many causalities was, I would say, visible by launching this amount of missiles to the heart of Israel.

In 1981, to balance this record, the Israeli Air Force destroyed the nuclear military plant of Iraq. Our intelligence learned that Saddam Hussein, in 1981, was quite close to the final stage of building nuclear weapons and then the Prime Minister and the Defense Cabinet decided to destroy this nuclear plant and, by doing so, denied Saddam Hussein a weapon of mass destruction, actually a nuclear bomb. We didn't ask anyone permission. We didn't ask support from any country. We didn't ask for any backing, military or otherwise. We decided this was something highly needed, vital, for our existence and we destroyed this nuclear plant. If we didn't do so, Saddam Hussein, in the mid 1980's, would have had already nuclear weapons and this meeting could not take place because since there was no Israel, there was no Israeli. So, this is the past and the real, and for us, the event, which was meaningful, the missiles attack on Israel in January 1991 and it will be soon clearly understood why it was - - this event was so meaningful.

What about at present? Since 1998 there was no inspection of the United Nations on Iraq activities to procure, develop, and produce weapons of mass destruction. We know that Iraq, Saddam Hussein, they have chemical weapon because they already used it against the Kurds in the north. We know they have biological weapon because they tested it, and we know they developed the biological weapon to an operational grade and they even tested it on prisoners, and we assume that Saddam continued to try to develop nuclear weapon. We assume it because twice he was stopped and he tried again. We know that he has the money, the resources, and the know-how to develop a nuclear weapon. Most of the scientists who worked on the previous project are still active in Iraq, and moreover, he has the vision to have a nuclear weapon of his own. Given these facts, we assume he continues to develop nuclear weapon. The question is how advanced he is and how successful he is hiding the facilities for the R&D and for production.

But to define what is Saddam Hussein's attitude towards Israel? If it's enough that he launched a barrage of ballistic missiles, that he in the past, his country, participated in the all the aggressions against Israel, there is another dimension of the Iraqi policy towards Israel and this is the support of terrorism. As you know, for the last 30 months Israel has been and remains under attack of suicide bombing, which so far took the lives of about 500 Israelis. Over five hundred Israelis, most of them civilians, were killed in suicide bombings, attacks, and another 250 in other versions of terror. Altogether about 750 Israelis were killed in this offensive of terror and Saddam Hussein pays $15,000.00 to every family of a suicide bomber. What does this mean? It means that besides the religious belief that it is important to be a martyr, the family of the suicide bomber gets a substantial financial reward. In the West Bank and Gaza it equals to at least 20 monthly salaries when the family receives a check for $15,000.00 from Saddam Hussein.

But this is not every thing. Iraq is supporting, financing, and directing two terror organizations. One is called the Arab Liberation Organization. The other one is called the Popular Struggle Front. Both are proxies of Iraq. They train them. They give them operational directions. Only a couple of months ago, we have succeeded in Israel in intercepting and in discovering two cells of this organization. In the interrogation, the commander from this squad told us about their instructions. One of them, for instance, was to put cyanide into the drinking water reserve of Israel in order to bring about massive toxification of the drinking water of the country. The one, on behalf of Saddam, is in charge of the encouragement of this terror activity is no other but the vice president of Iraq, Taha Yassin Ramadan who is the number two man after Saddam Hussein who was appointed as the person in charge of directing the terror organizations against Israel.

So, if we put all this historic data and current information together, we can understand that Saddam Hussein equipped with nuclear weapons is for Israel an extensive threat. Israel, if you know the geography and the map of Israel, is extremely vulnerable to an attack by a weapon of mass destruction. Most of our economic and intellectual assets are concentrated in one narrow strip along the coastal plane of Israel. It's a strip of 50 miles length and maybe 10 miles width and two nuclear bombs can turn Israel to a third world country without all our scientific and economic advantages that we have now. So, for us, a strike by one or two such bombs means that Israel will never be what it used to be. That is why we decided in 1981 to destroy by our Air Force the Iraqi military nuclear plant and why now disarming Saddam Hussein, let alone his overthrow, means that an extensive threat to Israel is removed. And I say very plainly, for us, it would be a great relief if Saddam were out or if he would not have again the ability to develop weapons of mass destruction. I have to emphasize here that Israel never urged the U.S. Administration to carry out any operation, to go to war, and we are not involved in any decision taken by the U.S. Administration. We didn't ask for anything, and if we have to cope with this threat alone, we are capable of doing that.

How do we see the Middle East after a war in Iraq? I would like to state that a post-Saddam Iraq could be a democratic state. All the potential of democracy is there and such Iraq, a new Iraq, can play positive role in a future peace process. Iraq, without Saddam, can substantially contribute in the future to an Arab-Israeli peace. Moreover, the economic reconstruction of Iraq after the war can benefit the Israeli as well as the Jordanian economies in a substantial way. Just to remind you, the seaport of Israel may serve Iraq as an outlet for exports and imports to the Atlantic via the Mediterranean. Our seaport may serve Iraq, the ground transportation, the export from Iraq can be done through Israel and Jordan, and a promising prospect of economic cooperation between these three countries can exist and develop.

But, the outcome of the war, and I have to emphasize it, would not turn the Middle East for us, the Israelis, to a cozier place to live in. The war would not change or would not uproot the fundamental reasons for extremism, religious fanaticism, and the reasons for terror in the Middle East. The basic reality would not be changed and we should be fully aware of that. The change in Iraq would not bring about a quicker solution of the Israel/Palestinian conflict because a solution of this conflict can be done only through compromise and compromises cannot be imposed by a third party. A compromise between the Israelis and Palestinians can come only when there is a political will on both sides and the war will not bring that about. Some Arab regimens can get weaker after the war. A protracted friction between the United States and an Arab state may increase anti-American sentiments and those regimes that are friends of the United States can become weaker than they are today. The dangerous potential of changes inside Saudi Arabia would not be influenced by a successful operation in Iraq. So, we should not toy with illusions. Removal of Saddam Hussein is important for the security in the region, but it will not solve all the problems. Many problems will persist, maybe some of them with greater intensity.

But, if we are speaking about the Israeli perspective, the most dangerous outcome for Israel of this war is that Iran, a senior member of the axis of evil, will emerge of this conflict untouched, maybe even stronger. Today who speaks about Iran? Nobody. We could present in the Security Council or elsewhere a very persuasive presentation as secretary Powell did in the U.N. Security Council about Iraq a few days ago. Iran is by far more advanced in developing its nuclear weapons. And the danger for Israel, a real danger, is that Iran could continue to develop long-range ballistic missiles mainly with help from North Korea. Iran would continue with its military nuclear project mainly with the support of Russia. They already have ballistic missiles in operational quality with a range of 800 miles and, by the end of this decade; they may have ballistic missiles with a range of 3,000 miles, which are capable to carry the nuclear warheads that they are so diligently working to produce. Iran will continue to inspire, to direct and to finance a consortium of terror organizations: Hizballah, Hamas, and the Islamic Jihad. Even today, they directly finance those organizations that carry out the suicide bombing. They try to infiltrate the Israeli-Arab community and build an infrastructure of terror inside the West Bank and Gaza. Iran will maintain the huge military build-up that they have in south Lebanon where they deployed 10,000 rockets and missiles, which cover a quarter of our territory where one of every four Israelis is living today under the range of these rockets and missiles, deployed in south Lebanon by Iran.

I'm afraid the European Union and maybe not the only the European Union, will keep trying to appease the theocratic regime in Teheran with complete disregard of all the things I mentioned here: The support of terrorism and the proliferation of the weapons of mass destruction. So, when we speak about the Israeli perspective, we have on the one hand to bear in mind that overthrowing Saddam Hussein may be a positive development as far as our national security is concerned, but we have to bear in mind as well other dangers will remain and that the Iranian danger, the Iranian threat, may be even more grave and we have to deal with this danger and to be ready in the future to do so without illusions, but with courage and resolve.