Australian Broadcasting Corporation
LATELINE
Late night news & current affairs

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Compere: Tony Jones
Reporter: Tony Jones

One of the most disturbing prospects in the event of a United States war with Iraq is the possibility that Saddam Hussein might attack nuclear-capable Israel with chemical or biological weapons.

No-one knows where that would lead. A short time ago I discussed that scenario with one of Labor's cabinet ministers in the Israeli Government, Dr Ephraim Sneh.

Until last year, Dr Sneh was Israel's deputy minister of defence. Currently he holds the transport portfolio.

Before entering politics, Ephraim Sneh had a long military career, at the height of which he commanded Israeli forces in southern Lebanon.

He's also served as governor of the West Bank. He's currently in Australia to meet with federal politicians from both sides of politics.

TONY JONES: Ephraim Sneh, is there a strong case right now to support a US-led attack on Iraq?

EPHRAIM SNEH, ISRAELI TRANSPORT MINISTER: It's not a question of the United States and Iraq.

It's a question of the entire international community and Iraq. We know that Saddam Hussein is pursuing military nuclear capability.

Twice in the past he almost reached it. Saddam Hussein attacked Israel with no provocation by launching 39 missiles to our towns just 11 years ago.

He gassed his own Kurd citizens. He participated in three aggressions against Israel and it's the decision of the entire international democratic community, if they want, to give in the hands of Saddam Hussein, a nuclear blackmail potential.

TONY JONES: Does Israel have any evidence of this, any concrete evidence, that he has continued to develop nuclear weapons or attempted to develop nuclear weapons, because no-one has seen this evidence yet.

EPHRAIM SNEH: The historical facts that I mentioned are not in dispute.

But we know that since August 1998, just four years ago, since there is no inspection in Iraq whatsoever, when he expelled the inspectors of the UN, he has the money, the know-how, the scientists and the desire to procure nuclear weapons and to develop them by himself - to procure the material and to develop the bomb by himself.

TONY JONES: But if there is evidence, what sort of evidence is it? Is it human intelligence, photographs, documents?

Is it evidence of secret imports, of technology or chemicals, for example, to make weapons of mass destruction?

Does that sort of hard evidence exist, to your knowledge?

EPHRAIM SNEH: I would say it's circumstantial evidence plus strong assumptions.

TONY JONES: So no direct evidence, because the world, in a sense, is waiting to see whether the United States or Britain or even Israel will produce a dossier of intelligence reports which prove that there are weapons of mass destruction being pursued in Iraq.

EPHRAIM SNEH: There are some initial proofs, and there is his past record, which makes it very clear that he is going in a third time after twice he failed.

Once we bombed his nuclear plant. The second time the Americans destroyed his nuclear facilities and it's more than logical that the third time, after four years of exemption of inspections, he tries again.

And this is a danger not only to Israel.

TONY JONES: But you have seen what's happened already with US allies in Europe. Now Canada is getting shaky. It wants to see evidence.

Many people in the world want to see what evidence the President of the United States is going to bring forward.

You seem to be saying, with some inside knowledge, that there is no direct evidence.

EPHRAIM SNEH: To make it clear, we do not urge the United States or any other democracy to take a military action.

But we have to take precautions, and, if needed, we know how to protect ourselves.

I don't believe - I know - that the Israeli people are the best-protected people in the world against chemical and biological weapons and I know that our capacities to defend ourselves, even against an enemy like Iraq, today are better than those we had in 1991.

We are not declaring anything, and really we don't urge anyone to wage a war, but we have to be - we, the Israelis - we're supposed to be his first victims.

We should be on high alert, and we should be in a position to defend ourselves.

TONY JONES: Now, you say that Israel is not urging the United States not to delay this attack, but only days ago the Israeli spokesman, Ranan Gissin, said any postponement of an attack on Iraq at this stage will serve no purpose.

Wasn't that a message from Ariel Sharon to Washington?

EPHRAIM SNEH: I don't think they were the most clever remarks I ever heard, but the position of our government is exactly what I told you right now. We do not urge anyone.

TONY JONES: Alright. As you said earlier, 39 scud missiles were fired at Israel in the last Gulf War.

They were, as we know, armed only with conventional warheads, as it turns out. What is the worst-case scenario for Israel this time?

EPHRAIM SNEH: Of course if he attacks a second time, he may use weapon of mass destruction, which means, in his case today, chemical warheads and biological warheads.

These are the two weapons of mass destruction that we know for sure he has. Chemical weapons he already used, as I said, against the Kurds.

And there are very strong evidences of people who deserted from Iraq that he has a variety of biological agents to use as a weapon.

TONY JONES: So would Israel anticipate this time if Saddam Hussein's back was against the wall, if he had nothing to lose, that he'd be quite likely to use chemical or biological weapons against Israel?

EPHRAIM SNEH: There are analysts who think that if his back is to the wall, if he is in the corner, as a last resort, in an act of desperation, he may launch to Israel missiles, maybe with unconventional warheads.

As I said, we have to take all the necessary precautions.

TONY JONES: If Israel were attacked in this way with non-conventional weapons, with chemical or biological weapons, and they hit one of your cities, how would Israel respond?

EPHRAIM SNEH: We would do everything possible to silence the sources of missiles in the way that we have. I know what you want to ask.

TONY JONES: Well, I was in Israel the last time, and of course it is the obvious question - would Israel respond with nuclear weapons?

Because the last time - the last Gulf War - when I was in Israel, a senior Israeli official told us that that indeed was the plan.

EPHRAIM SNEH: As a member of the defence cabinet this is not the answer that I would give you.

TONY JONES: Have you come to a position, as you did then, as to how Israel would respond if seriously attacked with chemical and biological weapons?

EPHRAIM SNEH: If we are seriously attacked, we'd seriously fight back. It's stupid and irresponsible for me to say the means, the way, the tactics, the armaments that we are going to use.

But of course if we are severely hit, we would fight back.

We would not sit idle, and that refers also to Saddam Hussein. Whenever we are attacked, we fight back. We will not sit idle.

TONY JONES: But you would not rule out using nuclear weapons, responding with a weapon of mass destruction to a weapon of mass destruction?

EPHRAIM SNEH: We have about the nuclear issue for many years a policy of ambiguity. We don't tell what we have and what we have not.

We allow others to guess and, so far, it works.

TONY JONES: Well, except for Mordechai Vanunu, who revealed to the world that Israel did have a nuclear weapons program and is spending the rest of his life as a traitor in an Israeli jail as a result.

Now, he would not be be put in jail for his whole life if he revealed nothing.

EPHRAIM SNEH: If somebody is working in a nuclear installation and he speaks to the press, he has to spend the rest of his life in jail.

TONY JONES: Let me ask you this - has Israel told the United States that if Saddam Hussein attacked Israel this time, as he did last time, perhaps not with chemical or biological weapons but with conventional weapons, Israel would respond militarily?

Because the last time you did not respond for fear of alienating America's Arab allies.

This time there may be no Arab allies, in the field at least.

EPHRAIM SNEH: You are right. The circumstances that existed in '91 do not exist today and you are right - those were the reasons that inhibited us from joining the US action.

But I don't think that such a message was delivered to the US. I don't think so.

TONY JONES: Ephraim Sneh, we'll have to leave it there. Thank you very much for joining us tonight on Lateline.

 
© 2003 Lateline. Australian Broadcasting Corporation.